That AI is in a bubble is plain to most people. So I shorted the Australian share market a while back and I have just started with the US market. The trick is to buy a little at a time, so when the peak happens, you have the average entry price for the period in total.
Currently the US stock market is only booming because of AI. Everything else is flat.
Trump’s tariffs will cause inflation, guaranteed. We are just waiting for businesses to run out of their bulk purchases before the tariffs kicked in, and for them to stop absorbing cost increases. Coupled with concerns regarding the mid-terms, I expect inflation to peak in the first 3 months of 2026, and with (presumably) no new AI breakthroughs, we will see one player ease back. Probably Apple or Meta. And all of that will mean the stock market heads downwards.
The big threat is someone announcing they have achieved AGI. Just like we have humanoid robots being promoted that are actually controlled by a remote person, and just like Elon Musk always jumping the gun, expect some desperate company to lie about AGI.
It is an easy lie to make, because chatbots already easily pass the Turing test, and we don’t have any widely accepted harder test that can be used now. There is ARC-AGI-2, but it is visual puzzles, and while it seems legit (Chatbots get it right 4%, humans 100%), it doesn’t really have real world value.
AI tells me that there are no purely text-based tests Most formally recognized AGI benchmarks still include non-text modalities, such as symbolic data or grid tasks, to resist memorization and require true abstraction
That would be because, for many of us, we cannot tell from a conversation if the chatbot has reached general intelligence or not. We already had the famous case of a researcher thinking we are already there.
A deeper concern is when some outfit manages to use AI for nefarious purposes, and can scale to make bank. An Australian corporation is doing very well using AI for sports betting at present. Just wait until some AI instance can reliably make profitable share market or currency trades, or becomes a hacking operator.
Meanwhile the Saudis and UAE are getting into AI big time and they definitely cannot be trusted to play nice.