This very well written article starts out with a killer hook:
The Binge Purge
TV’s streaming model is broken. It’s also not going away. For Hollywood, figuring that out will be a horror show.
And a very SEO optimised URL
https://www.vulture.com/2023/06/streaming-industry-netflix-max-disney-hulu-apple-tv-prime-video-peacock-paramount.html
It then points out something not broken:
the number of original scripted series had exploded from 210 in 2009 to in 2022
And something that is:
If platforms like Netflix make any money at all, it is only a fraction of what entertainment companies used to make back when more than 105 million U.S.households spent an average of $75 per month on cable.
And Steven Soderberg saying:
You can have a massive hit on your platform, but it’s not actually doing anything to increase your platform’s revenue. It’s absolutely conceivable that the streaming subscription model is the crypto of the entertainment business.”
What I am seeing:
- There has never been a better time to be a TV consumer or creative
- Just like newspapers, accessing content has become easier, which means cheaper and fewer aspects of a monopoly
- The online aspect means everyone wants to be “the one”, like Amazon
- That means greater investment, and higher stakes
- Investment is based on hopes
There will only ever be “the one” if a platform offers all the TV shows and movies in existence, charges piecemeal, and takes a small cut – like Amazon does with shopping.
That will be the end result. But it could be decades away, because viewers are not ready to quantify how much they pay to watch one episode of a TV show. Few people divide their monthly subscription by episodes watched to determine how much they pay to watch one.
Movies are different. It is a no brainer to pay $5.99 for the household to watch a movie on a gigantic TV that would cost $20 per person in a cinema.
The only problem with streaming TV is that many of the players will go broke chasing an impossible dream – they will never be able to be the one service that satisfies everyone unless they provide every single show in existence.
With subscriptions becoming cheaper if they show you ads, the direction is quite clear. We will return to a TV world where ad placements pay for shows and reward creators.
In 2040 (I’m not brave enough to say 2030) there will be three TV models running in parallel:
- Subscription services like today with flagpole series (like The Last of Us), either fully paid or ad-supported
- Free streaming services, with ads, offering everything except the very latest hit. YouTube is already this.
- A platform where you pay for content per episode. It will start with offering every movie ever, and then add TV to the mix. With a lot of time, we will realise that we want to pay 50c to watch an episode of Schitt’s Creek.