It is so convenient to write this from one of the least likely lands to ever see a popular uprising – Australia.
There are two ways we can reduce inequality – government action or populist movements causing government action.
An overthrowing of Putin and the oligarchs would be a signal to the rest of the world’s governments that should be more honest, and more equitable.
It is really hard to predict which country will be next in removing dictators or becoming more democratic, but we know that people have a trigger point, which is when they see no other way of resolving things. Regime change doesn’t happen because of declining GDP numbers, it comes from enough people experiencing sufficient pain and difficulties to take action.
It looks like the Middle East is ready for some new uprisings, and social media is way more persuasive than a decade ago, so expect radical change, soon, in at least a few countries there.
Hollowed out by corruption and mismanagement and buffeted by adverse economic conditions, authoritarian governments in the Middle East are struggling to deliver the socioeconomic benefits that once pacified their publics. Armed actors, whether national security services or private militias, are playing an ever more important role in many countries—both economically and politically. Ordinary people, meanwhile, are being squeezed by growing violence on the one hand and dwindling resources on the other—just as they were prior to the Arab uprisings of 2011, and in Iraq and Syria, prior to the rise of the Islamic State.
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/middle-east/2022-03-22/middle-east-brink-again
One way of looking at the potential for an uprising is the ratio of armed forces to citizens. Too few forces and an uprising is easier to achieve. Too many and the military can turn on their leaders, because they have the power.
Asia and the Middle East dominate the rankings, with Greece the only odd one where the numbers are more than 6 per 1000 active military (30 countries). The United States is 51st with 4.2 per 1000. Interesting the lowest numbers are mostly in Africa which might need some explaining… although with Haiti at zero I suspect they just have a different names for government workers with guns, like police.
So based on low numbers, and inequality, these are my picks for uprising in the near future:
- South Africa
- Papua New Guinea
- East Timor
- Nepal
- Venezuela
It is more likely to be in the Middle East, but that cannot be foretold by numbers.