I think the following is more likely that most people would expect:
- Trump loses or almost loses an early primary to Haley
- Trump suggests election fraud (of course) even though his own party runs it
- Some senior Republicans support Haley
- News services suggest Trump is over-exposed
- Voters realise that 8 years of Trump news has become tiresome
- Trump’s smirk becomes a handicap
- Trump loses at least one court case and becomes a convicted felon – something opposition ads run with
- Haley gets the nomination either outright or because Trump ruffles too many feathers
Also quite possible is the Supreme Court don’t like Trump and say he cannot compete in 2024.
Flowing on from Haley’s nomination, the new mix causes the Democrats to do something they had strongly considered already. Biden becomes unwell, Harris is too unpopular, and Newsom becomes their candidate.
Newsom wins a close contest (they are always close).