Almost everyone believes only four teams can win it, based on current form, see below. Of course England, Scotland, Fiji, Argentina and Australia are all capable as well, but it is not considered likely.
From recent matches it appears that referees are going to be stricter than ever, and I think that will be the downfall of some teams, who will struggle to adjust from ways that helped them win until now. Tackles that are OK 98% of the time, but being a centimetre out means a red card…
NZ and South Africa will play shock and awe, battering ram, endurance rugby. South Africa might have 6 or even 7 forwards on the bench.
France and Ireland will play the more traditional game, with more tactical kicking and set moves in the backs.
Except for Ireland they will all struggle to not be penalised. However Ireland don’t have the depth of players of the other teams, so they will need to hope for few injuries. I think the classical, sane, safe nature of Irish rugby, combined with their great form over the last few years, makes them favourite.
Pool winners (and runners up) my predictions:
A France (NZ)
B Ireland (Sth Africa)
C Australia (Fiji)
D Argentina (England)
Possibly not making it past the group stage are England (if Japan beat them), Australia (if they simply play poorly), Fiji (if Wales beat them) and South Africa (Scotland are capable).
NZ and France are the only certainties to make it through the group stage, they are the only two teams that have just one difficult group game.
My expected quarter finals are:
Q1 Australia v England
Q2 Ireland v NZ
Q3 Argentina v Fiji
Q4 France v South Africa
Weirdly the top 4 teams are playing each other, almost certainly, and then the two winners have it relatively easy until the final.
SF1 Ireland v England
SF2 France v Fiji
Final Ireland v France
The real uncertainties are in the quarter-finals and final. If NZ beat Ireland, they’ll be in the final. If Argentina beat Fiji, they will also lose to France. If Australia beat England, they will also lose to Ireland.
If South Africa best France, they will quite likely win the tournament. For them and NZ to progress, they will need to change their style, and basically chill out.
Everything revolves around my decision that NZ won’t win their group. If they do, then they will make the final.
BETTING
The most interesting bets, where you can double your money from a simple win bet, will be in the group matches. I am thinking:
- France to beat NZ
- Ireland to beat South Africa
- Argentina to beat England
- Scotland to beat either South Africa or Ireland at good odds. One, not both.
- Fiji to beat Australia
- Japan to beat England
BTW, all but the first one would have been unimaginable 4 years ago. Which is why I am hopeful of reasonable odds.
UPDATE before the QUARTER FINALS
I’m happy with the initial predictions, got it mostly right. New thoughts based on who has actually made it
Argentina to beat Wales by 10
Argentina will be more dynamic and make fewer mistakes
Ireland to beat NZ by 5
NZ will win if they don’t make any mistakes – impossible to predict
Fiji to beat England by 10
England just aren’t very good, and Fiji are (mostly) on fire.
France to beat South Africa by 5
SA can win if they don’t get any yellow cards – impossible to predict
Straight win bets on Argentina and Fiji
Leave the other games alone, nobody can predict them
But bet on an Ireland v France final @4.50