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RWC2023 Logical Conclusion

In the Six Nations, Ireland and France are a class above the rest. In their last match, Ireland won by a bit, however it was France’s first loss in 2 years.

Otherwise, NZ are perennial first or second favourites, and Australia / South Africa have of course won it before, and are still capable. Their leading to RWC performances are unknown right now.

Nobody else has a chance, although England, Scotland, Argentina are all good enough to make the semis with some luck, draw ignored.

  • Pool A – NZ and France will go through. In which order could be a major factor.
  • Pool B – Expect Ireland to win the group. South Africa should come second, and Scotland are a small chance. Yes, South Africa might not make it through.
  • Pool C – No certainties, but in order of likelihood we have Australia, Wales and Fiji
  • Pool D – No certainties, but in order of likelihood we have England, Argentina and Japan

The lack of certainties means the world of rugby is in good shape.

We can look then to semi-finals, dictated by the two halves of the draw.

  • SF1 is the winner of QF1 and QF2, and they come from the winners of B & C, and the runners-up of A & D
  • SF2 is the winner of QF1 and QF2, and they come from the winners of A & D, and the runners-up of B & C

Unlike tennis, there are no “halves” of the draw 🙁

I need to seed this with two bold choices and then simply choose the rest via knockout preferences.

So I am going to start with the most likely winners of the lessers groups – Australia and England. Both are potentially going hard from game one. Less convinced that they can definitely come first or second…

So:

  • SF1 is the winner of QF1 and QF2, and they come from the winners of B & Australia and the runners-up of A & D
  • SF2 is the winner of QF1 and QF2, and they come from the winners of A & England, and the runners-up of B & C

Can Australia beat the runner-up of Pool D? Argentina or Japan. Yes Japan, not necessarily Argentina.

Can England beat the runner-up of Pool C? Wales or Fiji. Yes to both.

Now we have:

  • SF1 is between Australia (or maybe Argentina) and the winner of Ireland and maybe South Africa v NZ or France
  • SF2 is between England, and winner of (NZ or France vs South Africa and maybe Ireland)

England and Australia/Argentina will each lose the SF. So the remaining teams are:

NZ or France or South Africa or Ireland

I think the final could be any mix of the above. And therefore the winner can only come from them.

Ireland will probably beat South Africa.

  • SF1 is between Australia (or maybe Argentina) and the winner of Ireland and maybe South Africa v NZ or France
  • SF2 is between England, and winner of (NZ or France vs South Africa and maybe Ireland)

So the final is now down to:

  • the winner of Ireland v (NZ or France)
  • the winner of (NZ or France) vs South Africa

The weakest (that I can tell right now) isn’t South Africa. They only lost to Ireland and France by 3 or 4 points recently, and have beaten everyone else on their day.

NZ however have been well beaten by France and Ireland in recent years, sometimes.

The final will be between:

  • the winner of Ireland v France
  • the winner of France vs South Africa

Yep, looks weird.

I cannot call it between those three. To my mind, they are all equally rated to win the RWC, and NZ is double their odds.

The current odds are:

France 4.00
NZ 4.00
South Africa 5.30
Ireland 5.60

Ireland are the #1 team, but winning a RWC is something the others have all done. Well, France has never won, but their 3 runner-ups they lost by 1,3 and 4 points. So they are kinda overdue and never been so favoured and are at home.

If I bet on all of Ireland / France / South Africa equally, then $300 gets back either $400, $530 or $560. On average that is ~$500, and I can apportion my bets to make it exactly that. THIS IS WHAT I HAVE DONE 🙂 I have bet $30 to get back $50 if any of those 3 win. I will work on improving my betting account balance to get more of this.

I can get $1.67 odds that NZ will not win. As long as one of my next 3 picks is the winner.

NZ has won 3 out of 9 RWCs historically, and from memory this the first time they are not outright favourite.

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